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Chances of Promotion

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GrimRob
December 22, 2014, 9:06pm

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This is what my forecasting model currently says is the chances of promotion for the top few sides

Barnet     68.6%
Macclesfield     27.6%
Bristol Rovers     22.1%
Grimsby     22%
Eastleigh     12.6%
Kidderminster     12.2%
FC Halifax     9.7%
Woking     7.8%
Gateshead     4.4%
Forest Green     3.9%
Torquay     3.1%

of course it doesn't take into account the disavantage of being in the FA Trophy!


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Teestogreen
December 22, 2014, 9:40pm

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Looks like Gateshead have had it then


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KingstonMariner
December 22, 2014, 11:49pm
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Quoted from GrimRob
This is what my forecasting model currently says is the chances of promotion for the top few sides

Barnet     68.6%
Macclesfield     27.6%
Bristol Rovers     22.1%
Grimsby     22%
Eastleigh     12.6%
Kidderminster     12.2%
FC Halifax     9.7%
Woking     7.8%
Gateshead     4.4%
Forest Green     3.9%
Torquay     3.1%

of course it doesn't take into account the disavantage of being in the FA Trophy!


What's it based on Rob? Without giving away too many secrets.  


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MyDogsThoughts
December 23, 2014, 12:41am

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Let's see your chances % wise after our two games with Macclesfield and see what our chances are then.


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GrimRob
December 23, 2014, 1:19pm

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Quoted from KingstonMariner


What's it based on Rob? Without giving away too many secrets.  


I calculate a ranking for each side and then use a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to play the season out many times and look at the average results of that. You can see the results in full on another site I maintain (occasionally!).

http://footballcalculator.co.uk/


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mimma
December 23, 2014, 4:27pm
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What do the bookies say?

That's usually a good guide as they don't like to give money away.
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KingstonMariner
December 23, 2014, 7:11pm
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Quoted from GrimRob


I calculate a ranking for each side and then use a technique called Monte Carlo Simulation to play the season out many times and look at the average results of that. You can see the results in full on another site I maintain (occasionally!).

http://footballcalculator.co.uk/


Cheers Rob. Intuitively the %ages you give feel about right, but I'm none the wiser (especially after reading the Wiki page). But then I'm maths illiterate beyond simple arithmetic.


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GrimRob
December 24, 2014, 9:19am

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Coinidentally I realised the ratings were wrong at have redone the assessment. These are the "correct" numbers, although it probably underestimates Bristol Rovers

Barnet     71.7%
Grimsby     29.4%
Macclesfield     25.3%
Eastleigh     17.4%
Bristol Rovers     12.8%
Gateshead      11.2%
FC Halifax     8.8%
Kidderminster     8.5%
Woking     7.8%


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oldun
December 26, 2014, 10:25am

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Not so sure about this Rob. You do some calculations, decide they are wrong so do them again and then think Bristol Rovers are in the wrong place. Therefore you keep recalculating until you like the look of the outcome. Mmmm might as well go with your gut and put them in that order eh!
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moosey_club
December 26, 2014, 10:39am
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I can come up with a simpler format for pretty much the same result..

The team looking most likely to win the league get 75% of the only 100% guaranteed automatic promotion spot...
The four teams looking most likely to get in the play offs get 25% chance each of the 100% play off winner promotion spot..


2023/24 DLWDDWDLLLWDLLLLWDDDWDLLWLDLLDWDDWLLDWLWLW
2022/23LDWDWWDWLLDWWDLLLDLWLLWLWLLWDDLDWWDDDLLWDWLWLW
2021/22 WDWWWWDLWWWWLLLWLLDLWLLWWDWWWLWDLWWDWWWDLWD play offs WWW Promoted 🥳
2020/21  LLDWWLDLDWLWLLLDLWLLDLLDLLLWLLLDDDDWDDDLWLWLWL .. hello darkness my old friend
2019/20  WDLDWWLDLWWLLLDLDLDLDDWWDLLWDDWWL WLLW - ended
2018/19  LWDDLLLLLLWWDWLLLWDWLWWWWLLLLWWWWDLLLDDLLDLWLW Hello Scunny  
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