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Oh Barnet!
Oh Barnet!

Beat the Bookies: Week 12

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 23/10/2008

LAST weekend produced a bizarre set of results in League Two. Unfortunately one of them was an away win and four goals for ten-men Barnet, which cost those who took our recommended spread bet dearly. Port Vale's win at Chester eased the burden however.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 12

Grimsby v Bradford Town should or could have won their two home games, Bradford should have got a draw at Darlington on Tuesday. Neither side have won much recently and another draw seems likely at 12/5. Of the two alternatives Grimsby are deemed half as likely as Bradford to win, which seems a little harsh as we are at home, so our second choice would be a home win at 21/10. Michael Boulding is 5/1 to score the first goal, but be aware that he did not start on Monday night.

Bury v Luton Luton are another side who draw a lot, and Bury have started to stutter after a bad start. Ironically despite Luton's predilection for draws they are a team who need to win every game to avoid relegation, or at least that should be their aim. Luton looked a reasonable side the other night and are capable of winning at Bury, especially at odds of 3/1!

Accrington Stanley v Wycombe Stanley have won their last two games, and Wycombe not won for three. Stanley's chances of winning would therefore seem a tad better than the 2/1 generally on offer.

Chesterfield v Notts County. It's not often we recommend draws but County draw so often that 5/2 for a draw looks a good bet against a side who have not been firing on all cylinders recently (apart from Wednesday's big win over Aldershot).

Barnet v Exeter. Barnet are dire (despite two recent wins) and Exeter very good (what a good result it was for us to get a point there). Despite the recent blips it should be business as usual at Underhill and three points for the away side. The bookies cannot separate the two but we can. Go for Exeter at 8/5!

Macclesfield v Rotherham Setting aside Rotherham's bizarre result at home to Barnet last week aside (and hopefully Tuesday's win over Bury reiterates its freak nature), the Millers are looking one of the top sides in League Two this season. With relegation looking very unlikely now they are another side who need to win every game to catch the teams near the top, and they will definitely regard this game as a potential three points. So do we and you could do no worse than invest some of your hard-earned money on an away win at 11/8

Port Vale v Morecambe Morecambe have struggled of late, and Vale picked up after a poor start. It's hard to see past a home win at 10/11.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Rotherham beat Macclesfield (8/5, Paddy Power)
  • 2. Luton to beat Bury (10/3, Paddy Power)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance (19) at

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (25/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

14/10Brentford beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£7.73

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£19.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£120.00

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