Beat the Bookies: Week 12

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 23/10/2008

LAST weekend produced a bizarre set of results in League Two. Unfortunately one of them was an away win and four goals for ten-men Barnet, which cost those who took our recommended spread bet dearly. Port Vale's win at Chester eased the burden however.

Grimsby v Bradford Town should or could have won their two home games, Bradford should have got a draw at Darlington on Tuesday. Neither side have won much recently and another draw seems likely at 12/5. Of the two alternatives Grimsby are deemed half as likely as Bradford to win, which seems a little harsh as we are at home, so our second choice would be a home win at 21/10. Michael Boulding is 5/1 to score the first goal, but be aware that he did not start on Monday night.

Bury v Luton Luton are another side who draw a lot, and Bury have started to stutter after a bad start. Ironically despite Luton's predilection for draws they are a team who need to win every game to avoid relegation, or at least that should be their aim. Luton looked a reasonable side the other night and are capable of winning at Bury, especially at odds of 3/1!

Accrington Stanley v Wycombe Stanley have won their last two games, and Wycombe not won for three. Stanley's chances of winning would therefore seem a tad better than the 2/1 generally on offer.

Chesterfield v Notts County. It's not often we recommend draws but County draw so often that 5/2 for a draw looks a good bet against a side who have not been firing on all cylinders recently (apart from Wednesday's big win over Aldershot).

Barnet v Exeter. Barnet are dire (despite two recent wins) and Exeter very good (what a good result it was for us to get a point there). Despite the recent blips it should be business as usual at Underhill and three points for the away side. The bookies cannot separate the two but we can. Go for Exeter at 8/5!

Macclesfield v Rotherham Setting aside Rotherham's bizarre result at home to Barnet last week aside (and hopefully Tuesday's win over Bury reiterates its freak nature), the Millers are looking one of the top sides in League Two this season. With relegation looking very unlikely now they are another side who need to win every game to catch the teams near the top, and they will definitely regard this game as a potential three points. So do we and you could do no worse than invest some of your hard-earned money on an away win at 11/8

Port Vale v Morecambe Morecambe have struggled of late, and Vale picked up after a poor start. It's hard to see past a home win at 10/11.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Rotherham beat Macclesfield (8/5, Paddy Power)
• 2. Luton to beat Bury (10/3, Paddy Power)

Recommended Spread Bet

• Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance (19) at www.igsport.com

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1 (25/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

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