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Beat the Bookies: Week 37
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 22/04/2008
BRADFORD's last minute goal cost Town dearly but did have the minor consolation of being a win for Beat the Bookies. Although Notts Co failed to beat Wrexham, it does mean that Beat the Bookies is now very likely to make a profit for the third year out of three.
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Home > 2007-2008 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 37 |
This weekend Town entertain big-spending Peterborough, who are now already promoted. In a sense both teams have little to play for. Posh are almost certain to finish second and Town have had one eye on the summer holidays for some time. However the respective form of the two teams could not be a bigger contrast, and Peterborough are well worthy of being 10/11 to win. Yet not many teams are odds on to win at Blundell Park. For that reason you may want to at least consider backing Town at 5/2 and deciding whether the bookies have over-egged the chances of Posh winning.
It looks like the bookies' algorithms to determine the match odds have really started to heavily weight when one side has something to play for and the other doesn't. Usually that's a good indication but in the case of a local derby of course both sides have everything to play for. A case in point is Bury v Rochdale. Yes, Rochdale's recent form is exemplary, but so is the Shakers who have won four out of the last five. 11/4 for a home win seems fantastic odds really for any team with that sort of form.
Morecambe v Lincoln City is a match which counts for nothing for both sides. Morecambe's season seemed to end when we knocked them out of the JPT whereas Lincoln are still picking up wins on a regular basis. 3/1 for an way win is well worth a punt.
Recommended Bets
Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Accrington to be relegated | 7/2 | Ongoing |
| 06/08 | Wycombe to be promoted | 10/3 | Ongoing |
| 17/08 | Sunderland to beat Wigan | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/08 | Shrewsbury to beat MK Dons | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 21/08 | Bury to beat Wycombe | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 29/08 | Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 29/08 | Chester to beat Rotherham | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/09 | Mansfield to beat Peterborough | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/09 | Mulligan or Bennett first goal v Accrington | 3/1 | -£5.00 |
| 11/09 | Stockport to beat Grimsby | 13/8 | -£10.00 |
| 11/09 | Lincoln to beat Darlington | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 18/09 | Lincoln to draw with Grimsby | 11/5 | -£10.00 |
| 18/09 | Morecambe to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Hull to beat Chelsea | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
| 25/09 | Notts County to draw with Chesterfield | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/10 | Grimsby to beat Peterborough | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/10 | Barnet to beat Stockport | 3/1 | +£30.00 |
| 11/10 | Bury to beat Notts County | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 11/10 | Grimsby to be relegated | 9/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/10 | Russia to beat England | 11/5 | +£22.00 |
| 16/10 | South Africa to beat England | 2/5 | +£4.00 |
| 23/10 | Bury to beat Macclesfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 23/10 | Wrexham to beat Notts County | 5/2 | -£10.00 |
| 01/11 | Bradford to beat Brentford | 5/4 | -£10.00 |
| 08/11 | Carlisle to win by 2 or more goals | 13/10 | -£10.00 |
| 08/11 | Dagenham to get relegated | 4/1 | Ongoing |
| 15/11 | Grimsby to beat Morecambe | 13/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/11 | Barnet to beat Shrewsbury | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Carlisle to beat Grimsby | 13/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Croatia to beat England | 9.6 | +£81.71 |
| 28/11 | Havant and Waterlooville to beat Notts County | 6/1 | +£60.00 |
| 06/12 | Brentford to beat Grimsby | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/12 | Wrexham to beat Dagenham | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Morecambe to beat Wycombe | 5/2 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Brentford to beat Wrexham | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 18/12 | Bury to beat Chester | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 18/12 | Brentford to beat MK Dons | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/12 | Rochdale to beat Macclesfield | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 27/12 | Accrington Stanley to beat Mansfield | 15/8 | +£18.75 |
| 02/01 | Stockport to beat Notts County | 13/8 | +£16.25 |
| 02/01 | Bristol City to beat Middlesbrough | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 10/01 | Accrington Stanley to beat Stockport | 5/2 | -£10.00 |
| 10/01 | Scunthorpe to be relegated | 5/6 | +£8.33 |
| 16/01 | Wrexham to beat MK Dons | 9/2 | +£45.00 |
| 16/01 | Hereford to beat Chesterfield | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/01 | Rochdale to beat MK Dons | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 23/01 | Newcastle to beat Arsenal | 7/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Wrexham to beat Darlington | 11/4 | +£27.50 |
| 30/01 | Barnet to beat Morecambe | 11/8 | -£10.00 |
| 06/02 | Chesterfield to beat Grimsby | 15/8 | -£10.00 |
| 06/02 | Wrexham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/02 | Rotherham to beat MK Dons | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 15/02 | Notts County to beat Chester | 15/8 | +£18.75 |
| 15/02 | Wrexham to beat MK Dons | 5/1 | £0.0 |
| 20/02 | Lincoln to beat Rotherham | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Barnet to beat MK Dons | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 27/02 | Morecambe to win the Johnstone Paint Trophy | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/02 | Accrington Stanley to beat Rotherham | 4/1 | +£40.00 |
| 07/03 | Lincoln to beat Chesterfield | 5/2 | -£10.00 |
| 07/03 | Wrexham to beat Chester | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 12/03 | Stockport to beat Lincoln | 9/5 | +£18.00 |
| 12/03 | Accrington to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 19/03 | Wrexham to beat Brentford | 11/4 | -£20.00 |
| 27/03 | Grimsby to beat MK Dons | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 27/03 | Wrexham to beat Barnet | 23/10 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Brentford to beat Rotherham | 19/10 | +£19.00 |
| 03/04 | Mansfield to beat Barnet | 5/4 | -£10.00 |
| 09/04 | Bradford to beat Brentford | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/04 | Lincoln to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
| 16/04 | Bradford to beat Grimsby | 10/11 | +£9.09 |
| 16/04 | Notts County to beat Wrexham | 13/8 | -£10.00 |
| Total | +£69.38 | ||
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