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Counting the Cost!
Counting the Cost!

Beat the Bookies: Week 21

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 31/12/2008

BOXING DAY is best forgotten as all four of Beat the Bookies's Christmas tips lost and Grimsby of course got beaten at home by Notts County.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 21

This week with the FA Cup Third Round on sees a slightly reduced League Two programme.

Barnet v Grimsby The big match at the bottom of the table is Barnet v Town. Both clubs would dearly like to win this game to boost their hopes of avoiding the drop. Barnet, who of course sacked their manager last week, had a great win at Bournemouth on Saturday. Town could well be fielding a new player or two with the match falling in January so all in all it is a bit unpredictable. At the time of writing a home win at 6/5 looks the best value, but otherwise this is a fixture to leave well alone with all three prices being short odds.

Rochdale v Accrington Stanley. Both clubs have had poor runs recently, with Dale perhaps a little better than their Lancashire rivals. However Stanley will be boosted by the win against Town on Saturday and have always got an extra chance in a local derby game. A home win is obviously the most likely result, but the 5/1 listed for an away win looks more than generous. Selection: Away Win

Aldershot v Notts County. This is another match which looks like a home banker and that's where all the money will be going. However Aldershot lost last week to Dagenham at the Recreation Ground and County of course won their last away game at Blundell Park. County had a few players out injured when they played Town and some of them may well be available for selection again by now. All in all the price for an away win looks tempting at 4/1. Selection: Away Win

Darlington v Bournemouth. Darlo have crumbled of late and are bottom of the form table. Bournemouth are really a mid-table side (despite their league position) and at the moment they rarely lose. 4/1 for an away win has to be one of the bets of a week against a side who have not won for ages. Selection: Away Win

Exeter v Port Vale. This falls in a similar category to the previous two games. There's little to choose between the two clubs recently. Exeter are always strong at home but Vale could easily come away with all three points. They can be backed at 10/3. Selection: Away Win

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Accrington to beat Rochdale. (5/1 Bet365),
  • 2. Bournemouth to beat Darlington. (4/1 Bet365),

    Recommended Spread Bet

      No bet this week.

    The Monkey's Bet

    • Grimsby to win 3-1, 28/1 Bet365

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    23/12Luton to beat Chesterfield14/5-£10.00
    23/12Port Vale to beat Rotherham4/1-£10.00
    23/12Bournemouth to beat Brentford9/2-£10.00
    23/12Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale9/4-£10.00
    16/12Grimsby to beat Aldershot9/2-£10.00
    16/12Lincoln to beat Notts County7/4+£17.50
    11/12Port Vale to beat Bury10/3-£10.00
    11/12Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield10/3+£33.33
    11/12Bournemouth to beat Rochdale4/1-£10.00
    04/12Bournemouth to beat ChesterEvens+£10.00
    04/12Bradford to beat Dagenham10/11-£10.00
    28/11Aldershot beat Millwall13/2-£10.00
    28/11Alferton beat Scunthorpe17/2-£10.00
    19/11Notts Co to beat Dagenham12/5-£10.00
    19/11Gillingham to beat Bury19/10-£10.00
    11/11Grimsby to beat Bury9/2+£45.00
    11/11Gillingham to beat Rotherham5/4+£12.50
    06/11Northampton to beat Leeds13/2-£10.00
    06/11Grimsby to beat Morecambe11/4-£10.00
    06/11Bradford to beat MK Dons11/2+£55.00
    31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
    31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
    27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
    27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
    22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
    22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
    14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
    14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
    09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
    09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
    06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
    06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
    30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
    30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
    24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
    24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
    17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
    17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
    09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
    09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
    04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
    04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
    28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
    28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
    19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
    19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
    15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
    15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
    06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
    06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
    Total +£34.93

    Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

    04/12Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance2110B-£6.00
    04/12Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance2155S-£34.00
    19/11Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance2545S+£20.00
    31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
    22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
    14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
    09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
    24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
    17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
    09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
    04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
    28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
    19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
    15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
    06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
    Total -£56.00

    Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

    23/12Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
    17/12Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    11/12Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
    04/12Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    19/11Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
    11/11Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
    06/11Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
    14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
    30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
    17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
    04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
    15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
    Total -£220.00

    Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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