Beat the Bookies: Week 1

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 05/08/2009

LIFE begins again after a terrible few weeks trying to understand tie breaks, the lbw rule, the new 40-20 kick in Super League and the intricacies of the Tour de France. Worry no longer, proper sport and proper betting is back.

Beat the Bookies has made a profit in each of its last three seasons? Can it do the same again?

The first few games of the season are very hard to predict because there is so little data to go on. League Two teams all make a lot of changes on and off the pitch during the summer, there are six new teams in the division, plus there are the financial conditions at every club to take into account (has each club likely to have had the money to pay decent wages this season?).

What we at Beat the Bookies normally do is concentrate on only those games involving teams that both were in the division last season, until the dust settles and it is possible to figure a pattern to the first few games. Even that is not simple though with four clubs ending last season with points deduction and several more rumoured to be in financial trouble.

Cheltenham v Grimsby. There's not doubt that is has been a successful summer for Grimsby and we've managed to seriously strengthen the team. A few of the pre-season games were lost, but only to teams in higher divisions which is a far cry from a year ago when we were being beaten by non-league sides. Cheltenham look to have had a decent pre-season as well, other than that they are an unknown quantity. Grimsby look a decent price to win at 11/4 and Town have an excellent record at Whaddon Road. Beware though over confidence and although we've improved it's from a very low starting point! Selection: Grimsby

Notts County v Bradford. Could this be an early promotion six pointer? Notts County don't look to have done enough to me to justify their pre-season favourites billing and I'll be opposing them for the first couple of games at least until we get an idea of how strong they are. The markets have most likely overreacted to the signing of Sven as director of football. Bradford themselves will be desperate to get out of League Two and under normal circumstances this would be an away win on your coupon. Go for Bradford at 3/1. It just could be a bargain! Selection: Bradford

Bury v Bournemouth. Bournemouth were the strongest team in the final few games of last season and will be setting their stall out to get promoted this season. Bury did well last year but dipped after a good start and have also had some poor pre-season results. The Cherries will do well this season in all probability and could get off to a flying start at Gigg Lane. Go for Bournemouth at 12/5. Selection: Bournemouth

Rotherham v Accrington Stanley. An early chance of a big upset could be at Rotherham, another of the pre-season favourites against Stanley, perennial summer favourites for relegation. Rotherham have just sold star player Reuben Reid and it's bound to have had a negative effect so close to the start of the season. Could Stanley cause an early upset? It's worth a punt at 5/1.. Selection: Accrington Stanley

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Bradford to beat Notts County . (3/1, Bet365)
• 2. Bournemouth to beat Bury. (12/5, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

• Prices not available.

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 33/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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