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Beat the Bookies: Week 8

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 25/09/2009

GRIMSBY'S win and two goals last weekend ensured a spread betting win for Beat the Bookies. Sadly Man City and Port Vale didn't oblige in the Fixed Odds markets.

Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 8


Grimsby v Darlington. Grimsby, with players coming back, against the division's bottom side, and with a couple of wins under their belts, are clear favourites to win. Town can be backed at 10/11. However, it's Darlo - even in our good years we seem to lose to them. Moreover you get the feeling that Town's confidence is still a little shaky after such a poor start - we're yet to get anything out of a game where we concede the first goal. Therefore the value bet in the 1X2 market has to be an away win at 3/1. Another good bet has to be a low-scoring game - Grimsby's formation is rather defensives, and Darlington are unlikely to set themselves out with goals their chief objective. You can bet under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Selection: Low Scoring Game

< b>Notts County v Port Vale. You'd have made a healthy profit in you'd backed Notts County to lose every game so far. Admittedly they've been a lot stronger at home than they have on their travels, but this week has not been a good one for them with the Sol Campbell fiasco having been all over the national media. County could react either way, but an away win is worth a punt at 11/2 Selection: Port Vale

Bury v Lincoln. Bury's recent form was terrible, until we tipped them to lose last week at Port Vale and they won. However, we'll regard that as a blip and they only managed one goal to nil! Lincoln are going through a transitional phase and sooner or later they'll start stringing a few decent results together. They're definitely worth considering at 3/1. Selection: Lincoln

Dagenham v Morecambe. Dagenham have been superb this season and Morecambe had a terrible start to the campaign. However recent displays from the Christie Park side have hinted at better things to come, not least a win last week against moneybags Notts County. Sammy McIlroy is a wily old campaigner and he could well put up a side capable of springing a surprise for the second consecutive weekend. Take your chances at 5/1 on Morecambe to win the game. Selection: Morecambe

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.


Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals. . (4/5, Bet365)
  • 2. Morecambe to beat Dagenham. . (5/1, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Buy Port Vale mini-performance (15 at extrabet.com)

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1, 14/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
17/09Man City to beat Man Utd5/1-£10.00
17/09Port Vale to beat Bury6/5-£10.00
10/09Bradford to beat BurtonEvens-£10.00
10/09Lincoln to beat Bournemouth4/1-£10.00
03/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury5/2+£25.00
03/09Chesterfield to beat Rotherham11/4-£10.00
27/08Bury to beat Rochdale21/10-£10.00
27/08Lincoln to beat Dagenham10/3-£10.00
20/08Grimsby to beat Bury7/5+£45.00
20/08Dagenham to beat Notts County5/1-£10.00
14/08Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals8/11+£7.27
14/08Bournemouth to beat Rotherham7/5+£14.00
05/08Bradford to beat Notts County3/1-£10.00
05/08Bournemouth to beat Bury12/5+£24.00
01/08Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW)16/1Open
01/08Morecambe to be relegated11/1Open
Total +£25.27


Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

DateBetPriceBuy/SellActualProfit/Loss
17/09Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance21B45+£24.00
27/08Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance33S20+£13.00
20/08Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance28S30-£2.00
14/08Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance23S30-£7.00
Total +£28.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
10/09Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
03/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
20/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
18/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
11/08Grimsby to win 3-1??/1-£10.00
05/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
Total -£80.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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