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Beat the Bookies: Week 10

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 08/10/2009

LAST Saturday was the start of a depressing weekend best forgotten, both on the football front and the betting front. Never mind, there's plenty more games to contemplate.

Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 10

This week sees an unusual number of home "bankers" on the coupon with the away sides available at long odds. Anyone who reads this column regularly will know such games are frequently recommended here, and normally we get at least a few winners every season.

In almost every case there's no reason to back the away side other than the bookies have overcooked the favourite, but let's quickly go through the main contenders this week.

Dagenham v Darlington. Away Odds: 6/1. Darlo have lost a lot of games this year, but very few have been by more than the odd goal. Daggers have had a good start, but got only two points from the last three games. Their last home game was a 1-1 draw with Morecambe. Looks like an upset in the making.

Rochdale v Barnet. Away Odds: 10/3. Barnet looked a really good side last week. Yes Rochdale have been doing well, but they lost their last game to Burton.

Rotherham v Hereford. Away Odds: 5/1. Rotherham are on a good run, but Hereford have not been doing that badly recently and at this level very few away teams are justified that long odds.

Notts County v Torquay. Away Odds: 8/1. Notts County's ground has been a fortress this season, but they are having a strange season and have had some poor results. Stranger things have happened, especially live on TV.

Shrewsbury v Port Vale. Away Odds: 15/4. Same story really, but Port Vale are no mugs and are capable of an upset.

This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

Fixed Odds
Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

1. Barnet to beat Rochdale. . (10/3, Bet365)
2. Torquay to beat Notts Co. . (8/1, Bet365)

Recommended Spread Bet

Odds not yet available

The Monkey's Bet

Grimsby to win 3-1, 20/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Date	Bet	Odds	Profit/Loss
02/10	Accrington Stanley to beat Chesterfield	15/4	-£10.00
02/10	Shrewsbury to beat Morecambe	6/4	-£10.00
25/09	Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals	4/5	+£8.00
25/09	Morecambe to beat Dagenham	5/1	-£10.00
17/09	Man City to beat Man Utd	5/1	-£10.00
17/09	Port Vale to beat Bury	6/5	-£10.00
10/09	Bradford to beat Burton	Evens	-£10.00
10/09	Lincoln to beat Bournemouth	4/1	-£10.00
03/09	Bradford to beat Shrewsbury	5/2	+£25.00
03/09	Chesterfield to beat Rotherham	11/4	-£10.00
27/08	Bury to beat Rochdale	21/10	-£10.00
27/08	Lincoln to beat Dagenham	10/3	-£10.00
20/08	Grimsby to beat Bury	7/5	+£45.00
20/08	Dagenham to beat Notts County	5/1	-£10.00
14/08	Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals	8/11	+£7.27
14/08	Bournemouth to beat Rotherham	7/5	+£14.00
05/08	Bradford to beat Notts County	3/1	-£10.00
05/08	Bournemouth to beat Bury	12/5	+£24.00
01/08	Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW)	16/1	Open
01/08	Morecambe to be relegated	11/1	Open
Total			+£3.27

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Date	Bet	Price	Buy/Sell	Actual	Profit/Loss
25/09	Notts County v Port Vale: Buy Port Vale mini-performance	15	B	10	-£5.00
17/09	Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance	21	B	45	+£24.00
27/08	Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance	33	S	20	+£13.00
20/08	Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance	28	S	30	-£2.00
14/08	Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance	23	S	30	-£7.00
Total					+£23.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Date	Bet	Odds	Profit/Loss
06/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	66/1	-£10.00
03/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
30/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
25/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	14/1	-£10.00
17/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
10/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	22/1	-£10.00
03/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
27/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	50/1	-£10.00
20/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	50/1	-£10.00
18/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	18/1	-£10.00
15/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	18/1	-£10.00
11/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	??/1	-£10.00
05/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
Total			-£130.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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