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Beat the Bookies: Week 13

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 05/11/2009

LAST week there was no Beat the Bookies due to ill health. However the week before was interesting - a £55 fixed odds win was offset by a £45 spread betting loss.

Home > 2009-2010 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 13

It's the FA Cup this weekend, which is the footballing equivalent to the Grand National - there are long odds available but to pick a winner you need a large slice of luck.

Here are the best bets for non-league upsets in our view.

  • Accrington v Salisbury City 9/2
  • Gateshead v Brentford 4/1
  • Grimsby v Bath 9/2
  • Hartlepool v Kettering 6/1
  • Hereford v Sutton 13/2
  • Northampton v Fleetwood 11/2
  • Swindon v Woking 7/1
  • Millwall v AFC Wimbledon 6/1

    Of those we'd recommend Gateshead and Salisbury City above all others.

    Of the five all-League Two clashes the following two matches stand out.

    Notts County v Bradford Notts County won the equivalent league match 5-0 back in August, but don't let that hide the fact that County have been anything but convincing in the past few games. Granted, neither have Bradford, but the bookies consistently overprice Notts County, and good value can be found by betting on whoever they are playing. County's main priority is also the league and they certainly don't need the money from a cup run. Who knocked them out the JPT this year? Bradford. City can be backed at 4/1. Selection: Bradford

    Barnet v Darlington Barnet won the equivalent league game 3-0 only last week, where we tipped Darlo to get something from the game. However they've got a second bite at the cherry and will have learned something from last week where it took quite a while for Barnet to score the first goal. Sky Bet once again stick their necks out quite a bit of the other bookies at 11/2 . Selection: Darlington

    This season we will again be trying out three different betting strategies:

    • Fixed Odds
    • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
    • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy). The Monkey lost every bet last year.

    Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

    • 1. Darlington to beat Barnet. . (11/2, Sky Bet)
    • 2. Bradford to beat Notts County. . (4/1, Bet365)

    Recommended Spread Bet

    • No bet this week

    The Monkey's Bet

    • Grimsby to win 3-1, 11/1 Bet365

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    22/10Darlington to beat Barnet5/1-£10.00
    22/10Accrington Stanley to beat Rochdale11/2+£55.00
    16/10Grimsby to beat Rochdale3/1-£10.00
    16/10Bradford to beat Dagenham7/2-£10.00
    08/10Barnet to beat Rochdale10/3-£10.00
    08/10Torquay to beat Notts Co8/1-£10.00
    02/10Accrington Stanley to beat Chesterfield15/4-£10.00
    02/10Shrewsbury to beat Morecambe6/4-£10.00
    25/09Grimsby v Darlington - Under 2.5 goals4/5+£8.00
    25/09Morecambe to beat Dagenham5/1-£10.00
    17/09Man City to beat Man Utd5/1-£10.00
    17/09Port Vale to beat Bury6/5-£10.00
    10/09Bradford to beat BurtonEvens-£10.00
    10/09Lincoln to beat Bournemouth4/1-£10.00
    03/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury5/2+£25.00
    03/09Chesterfield to beat Rotherham11/4-£10.00
    27/08Bury to beat Rochdale21/10-£10.00
    27/08Lincoln to beat Dagenham10/3-£10.00
    20/08Grimsby to beat Bury7/5+£45.00
    20/08Dagenham to beat Notts County5/1-£10.00
    14/08Accrington v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals8/11+£7.27
    14/08Bournemouth to beat Rotherham7/5+£14.00
    05/08Bradford to beat Notts County3/1-£10.00
    05/08Bournemouth to beat Bury12/5+£24.00
    01/08Bournemouth to win League Two (£5 EW)16/1Open
    01/08Morecambe to be relegated11/1Open
    Total +£7.27

    Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

    22/10Chesterfield v Burton Albion: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance30/td>S75-£45.00
    16/10Darlington v Shrewsbury: Sell Shrewsbury mini-performance28S10+£10.00
    25/09Notts County v Port Vale: Buy Port Vale mini-performance15B10-£5.00
    17/09Torquay v Grimsby: Buy Grimsby mini-performance21B45+£24.00
    27/08Chesterfield v Morecambe: Sell Chesterfield mini-performance33S20+£13.00
    20/08Morecambe v Macclesfield: Sell Morecambe mini performance28S30-£2.00
    14/08Barnet v Shrewsbury: Sell Barnet mini performance23S30-£7.00
    Total +£6.00

    Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

    30/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    22/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
    16/10Grimsby to win 3-120/1-£10.00
    08/10Grimsby to win 3-120/1-£10.00
    06/10Grimsby to win 3-166/1-£10.00
    03/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
    25/09Grimsby to win 3-114/1-£10.00
    17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    10/09Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
    03/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    27/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
    20/08Grimsby to win 3-150/1-£10.00
    18/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
    15/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
    11/08Grimsby to win 3-1??/1-£10.00
    05/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
    Total -£170.00

    Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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