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Beat the Bookies: Week 41

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 08/05/2006

LAST weekend was one which Mariners fans will never forget, for all the wrong reasons. One minor fact to come from it is that Beat the Bookies' tip of Northampton to win never came off, but Carlisle won the league to more than make up for it!

Home > 2005-2006 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 41


This weekend sees the first match of the League Two play-off matches. The bookies slightly favour the home sides. bet365.com offer 11/8 for a Lincoln win and 17/10 for a Grimsby victory. Likewise Wycombe are 7/5 to beat Cheltenham at home, whereas an away win is 7/4.

Grimsby and Cheltenham are joint favourites to win the play-offs, both at 12/5. Lincoln and Wycombe are marginally longer at 11/4.

It's a difficult contest to call the shots, and they could both be low scoring games. Wycombe have fallen alarmingly from grace in recent weeks, but are probably the class act in the competition and it's there for the taking if they get their act together. Lincoln have done the opposite, managing to claw their way into the play-offs with a great run from what looked like a hopeless position. Grimsby have the injustice of finishing fourth and getting so close to automatic promotion. This may or may not act in their favour, as may the 5-0 defeat at Lincoln earlier in the season. Cheltenham's recent form has been solid, but not spectacular, a bit like Town.

If I had to pick a bet this weekend I would go for Wycombe to beat Cheltenham away (7/5), and Wycombe to win the play-offs (11/4), simply because they are the class act and have won 2 out of their 3 games, which I think is the period after which John Gorman left.

However there is the slight matter of the FA Cup Final. Liverpool are strong favourites. bet365.com offer 8/13 for the Reds to win in 90 minutes, with the Hammers 9/2. Liverpool are 2/7 to win the tie with bet365.com and West Ham are 5/2, these latter shorter odds of course do not allow the possibility of a draw. I think West Ham's name is on the cup and have done for a while. They have some good young exciting players and can score goals, especially on the big occasions. I'll plump for 9/2 for a West Ham win in 90 minutes, although the hunch that they'll win could mean it's an extra time or penalties victory and you run the risk of losing out.

RECOMMENDED BET OF THE WEEK:
West Ham to win the FA Cup in normal time (9/2)

Previous Bets (around £10 per week)

DateBetOddsProfit/Loss
27/07Rushden to get relegated5/2+£25.00
03/08Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Indexbought at 13
sold at 7
+£12.00
10/08Rob Jones to score v Chester12/1£0.00
17/08Buy Scunthorpe in the Mini Performance Index vs Forestbought@16
actual 35
+£11.97
24/08Rob Jones to score v Derby33/1-£10.00
31/08Northampton to beat Wycombe2/1-£10.00
13/09Carlisle to beat Cheltenham2/1+£20.00
19/09Grimsby to beat Spurs5/1+£50.00
26/09Hull to beat Norwich16/5-£10.00
05/10Grimsby v Wycombe total goalsbought at 2.8
actual 1
-£9.00
11/10England v Poland total goalsbought at 2.6
actual 3
+£4.00
17/10Woking to beat Forest11/4+£27.50
24/10Grimsby to beat Newcastle6/1-£10.00
02/11Bristol Rovers to beat Grimsby10/3+£33.33
08/11Macclesfield to beat Grimsby7/2-£10.00
16/11Tommy Mooney to score against Grimsby5/4-£10.00
23/11Carlisle v Wycombe: buy total goalsbought at 2.9
actual 1
-£9.50
29/11Grays to beat Mansfield9/5-£10.00
06/12Bristol Rovers to beat Grimsby7/2+£35.00
14/12Wycombe to beat Bury6/5-£10.00
20/12Various Xmas Upsetsvarious-£11.50
29/12Hull to beat Leeds4/1-£10.00
04/01Arsenal not to beat Cardiff9/2-£10.00
11/01Carlisle to beat Shrewsbury7/5-£10.00
18/01Grimsby to beat TorquayEvens-£10.00
24/01Cheltenham to beat Newcastle5/1-£10.00
31/01West Ham to beat Sunderland8/15+£5.33
09/02Carlisle to win League Two11/2+£55.00
17/02Rochdale to beat Grimsby7/40.00
22/02Peterborough to beat Bristol Rovers5/6-£10.00
01/03Fulham to beat Arsenal11/5-£10.00
07/03Lincoln to beat Rushden4/6-£10.00
15/03Rushden to beat Leyton Orient9/5+£18.00
22/03West Ham to beat Wigan11/4+£27.50
29/03Wrexham to beat Grimsby10/3-£10.00
05/04Carlisle to beat GrimsbyEvens+£10.00
11/04Rushden to beat Rochdale6/5-£10.00
18/04Lincoln to draw with Leyton Orient9/4+£22.50
26/04Torquay to win at Carlisle9/2+£45.00
03/05Northampton to beat Grimsby10/3-£10.00
Total +£182.13

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