Beat the Bookies: Week 6

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 09/09/2008

LAST week everything went wrong for Beat the Bookies! All our tips failed and we lost everything. Time to dust ourselves down and get back to winning ways.

Accrington Stanley v Notts County Neither team is exactly lighting up the league in recent weeks. Best value: away win 15/8.

Barnet v Morecambe Two poor sides, could go either way. Best value: home win 11/8

Bournemouth v Macclesfield - Hard to see beyond a home win, more because Macclesfield have been doing poorly than because the Cherries are playing well. Best value: home win 7/10.

Bradford v Exeter - Bradford have started like title contenders and they are going to be very hard to beat this season at home, especially to teams from as far away as Exeter. Best value: home win 4/6.

Bury v Lincoln - Bury have probably overachieved this season, and the Imps underachieved. On paper this is a definite home win, but City may take heart from their first win last weekend. This fixture has been a draw for the last three seasons. Best value: draw 9/4

Dag & Red v Chesterfield - Another very hard game to forecast, both teams could be evenly matched. Chesterfield had a good result last weekend against Rotherham, but the Daggers could return to winning ways at home. Best value: home win 11/8

Darlington v Port Vale Darlington have started the season poorly, and Port Vale not much better. However the home side look to have been overpriced by the bookies in what would seem to be a fairly even contest in Darlo's very un-fortress like ground. Best value: away win 12/5

Grimsby v Chester There are two ways of looking at this. 1) Grimsby have had a bad start, but the teams they have played are largely the better ones. Now along come Chester, one of the worse sides in League Two and we have a definite home win. 2) Chester got off to a bad start, have recovered in their last two games, and will be looking for at least a draw against a fellow struggler. The simple fact that Chester are 23/11 and Town 11/10 means the away win has to be the best value, especially given our current lack of striking options. I fancy Chester to score which makes them worth considering for a spread bet buy with our goal scoring record. Best value: away win 23/11

Luton v Aldershot - Aldershot have had some excellent results in recent weeks at some of the most fancied sides and should be good for at least a draw. Best value: away win 5/2

Rotherham v Rochdale - Rotherham were unlucky to lost at Chesterfield last week and should see of the challenge of Dale at home. Best value: home win Evens

Shrewsbury v Gillingham - The Gills have won three league games on the spin, and Shrewsbury are overpriced for a home win at 10/11. Best value: draw 9/4

Wycombe v Brentford - Both sides are on winning streaks, and this fixture is hardly ever a draw. Although Wycombe are more likely to win, Brentford probably have a 30% chance of winning and therefore are the best value at 13.5. Best value: away win 11/4

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Rotherham to beat Rochdale (Evens, bet365))
• 2. Port Vale to beat Darlington (11/4, Stan James))

Recommended Spread Bet

• Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester (price not available, www.igsport.com)