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Cheers Chester!
Cheers Chester!

Beat the Bookies: Week 7

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 17/09/2008

TOWN'S defeat to Chester meant a big spread bet win for Beat the Bookies. However, the two fixed odds bets never quite came to fruition.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 7

Brentford v Lincoln Brentford have started the season well, and Lincoln poorly, especially on their travels. The Bees are odds on at 5/6 to win at Griffin Park, but there is nothing to suggest Lincoln can expect to get anything out of this game. Selection: Home Win.

Chester v Shrewsbury Town's opponents last week have recovered well from a dreadful start. This next game will give them their severest test against a strong Shrewsbury side, and in a local derby to boot in Sunday's game. Chester's display last week suggested they will concede if the defence is put under pressure. Chester can score goals, but Shrewsbury do not concede many. This looks like a buy spread bet for either side really, but with Shrewsbury winning 7-0 last week they get the nod. Selection: Away Win.

Morecambe v Grimsby. Nobody knows how Town will react to the sacking of Alan Buckley. The players are bound to feel some sort of release and may come out of their shells and we'll see what they are capable of. Morecambe have not done well in the league, but they have played all the top teams and managed to beat Shrewsbury last game.Under normal circumstances we would be recommending Evens for a home win, but this week you may fancy 11/4 for a Town win, or 11/10 in a +0.25 handicap, which means you win half you bet with a draw. Selection: Home Win.

Wycombe v Dag & Red. It's no surprise that Wycombe are near the top, but few would forecast this as a top of the table clash at the beginning of the season, when most had the Daggers pencilled in as relegation fodder. Wycombe score very few goals, while Dagenham score plenty. Dagenham should be value for at least a draw and if you are brave you may chance you arm with 11/4 for an away win. Selection: Away Win.

Port Vale v Macclesfield. For those not following League Two this season, most fans would put this match down as a home banker. However Port Vale have carried on with last season's relegation form, whereas Macclesfield have picked up two impressive wins in their last two games. By far the best value in this game is 7/2 for an away win. Selection: Away Win.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Dagenham to beat Wycombe (3/1, Paddy Power)
  • 2. Macclesfield to beat Port Vale (7/2, bet365))

Recommended Spread Bet

  • Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury (30,

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total -£39.00

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total +£32.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£60.00

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