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Cheers Luton!

Midweek Beat the Bookies Special

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 26/10/2008

THIS weekend more than saw off the losses of the previous weekend with all three tips coming in, the crowning triumph being Luton's win at Bury.

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Mid-week 13

Dagenham v Grimsby. Confidence may be low at Blundell Park at the moment, but Dagenham are hardly wallowing in it after three straight defeats and eight goals conceded. Has the bubble burst in East London? The Daggers' strength this season has been at home and they are justifiably favourites. They are a well organised side who are difficult to break down and have quality strikers up front. However Town have not got the points from recent games that their performances have deserved and therefore the bookies are probably underestimating our true chances of winning the game. Grimsby are available at 4/1 on Paddy Power and that's surely worth taking to back a side who have improved under Mike Newell and have come desperately close to winning two of the last four games.

Wycombe v Macclesfield. On paper this should be a comfortable home win but as we all know strange results happen on a weekly basis in our division and any team at a long price is always worth investigating. Macclesfield are priced 11/2 with Paddy Power. OK their recent form is not spectacular, but there's always the prospect of a freak result caused by factors such as the complacency of the league leaders or key players being injured or rested. If you are not familiar with the sides it's sometimes worth looking at the team news just before kick off before committing money to a game like this.

Rotherham v Darlington. Darlo have been flying of late and have really looked the part in recent games. The only problem is Rotherham have been quite handy too recently! Nonetheless 11/5 is probably an underestimate for the actual probability of an away win. An alternative might be to cover the draw by laying the home win on the exchanges or backing Darlo in an Asian Handicap.

Aldershot v Port Vale. After a bright start the Shots have fallen away and are drifting towards the bottom of the table like a stone (18 goals conceded in 6 games, that's worse than us!). Vale are heading almost as rapidly in the opposite direction after a change of manager. The bookies' odds tend to lag behind the true form of teams in our division, and 23/10 for an away win looks a bargain for a team that are starting to find the winning habit again.

Shrewsbury v Barnet. Like the Wycombe game this is an on paper home win, but Barnet have won at Rotherham and Grimsby in a recent weeks so are no mugs away from Underhill. Once again Paddy Power offer the best odds of an away win at 6/1. Prices for the Asian Handicap are not yet available but Shrewsbury will probably be given at least a 1 goal start - this might offer an alternative for the more cautious punter, as Shrews would need to win by 2 goals for you to lose anything.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

Fixed Odds - as per last year
Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

1. Grimsby to beat Dagenham (4/1, Paddy Power)
2. Port Vale to beat Aldershot (12/5, Paddy Power)

Recommended Spread Bet

No bet

The Monkey's Bet

Grimsby to win 3-1 (40/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Date	Bet	Odds	Profit/Loss
22/10	Rotherham to beat Macclesfield	8/5	+£16.00
22/10	Luton to beat Bury	10/3	+£33.33
14/10	Brentford to beat Aldershot	19/10	-£10.00
14/10	Port Vale to beat Chester	2/1	+£20.00
09/10	Grimsby to beat Wycombe	11/4	-£10.00
09/10	Barnet to beat Dagenham	9/2	-£10.00
06/10	Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe	6/1	-£10.00
06/10	Dagenham to beat Peterborough	5/1	+£50.00
30/09	Shrewsbury beat Darlington	2/1	-£10.00
30/09	Brentford to beat Macclesfield	8/11	+£7.27
24/09	Bradford to beat Shrewsbury	3/1	-£10.00
24/09	Rotherham to beat Dag & Red	3/1	-£10.00
17/09	Dagenham to beat Wycombe	3/1	-£10.00
17/09	Macclesfield to beat Port Vale	7/2	+£35.00
09/09	Rotherham to beat Rochdale	11/10	-£10.00
09/09	Port Vale to beat Darlington	11/4	-£10.00
04/09	Dag & Red to beat Brentford	12/5	-£10.00
04/09	Rotherham to beat Chesterfield	21/10	-£10.00
28/08	Chester to beat Barnet	17/10	+£17.00
28/08	Rotherham to beat Brentford	21/10	-£10.00
19/08	Lincoln to win at Wycombe	15/4	-£10.00
19/08	Port Vale to beat Dag & Red	21/10	-£10.00
15/08	Bradford to win at Macclesfield	13/10	+£13.00
15/08	Rotherham to win at Morecambe	21/10	+£21.00
06/08	Rochdale to beat Grimsby	17/10	-£10.00
06/08	Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury	4/1	-£10.00
Total			+£41.60

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Date	Bet	Price	Buy/Sell	Actual	Profit/Loss
22/10	Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance	19	10	S	+£9.00
14/10	Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance	14	65	S	-£51.00
09/10	Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance	19	20	S	-£1.00
24/09	Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance	21	10	S	+£11.00
17/09	Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance	30	20	S	-£10.00
09/09	Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance	21	B	55	+£34.00
04/09	Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance	23	S	0	-£23.00
28/08	Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance	38	B	20	+£8.00
19/08	Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance	38	B	55	+£17.00
15/08	Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance	31	S	55	-£24.00
06/08	Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance	20	S	0	+£20.00
Total					-£10.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Date	Bet	Odds	Profit/Loss
22/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	25/1	-£10.00
14/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
09/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
06/10	Grimsby to win 3-1	80/1	-£10.00
30/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
24/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	16/1	-£10.00
17/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
09/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	28/1	-£10.00
04/09	Grimsby to win 3-1	40/1	-£10.00
28/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
19/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	22/1	-£10.00
15/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	33/1	-£10.00
06/08	Grimsby to win 3-1	18/1	-£10.00
Total			-£130.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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