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The Road to Wembley
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Beat the Bookies: Week 14

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 06/11/2008

LAST week's bets all lost, but this weekend we have - for Grimsby - the welcome distraction of the FA Cup. The first round sees many unknown teams enter the competition and no doubt some of them will pick up scalps - let's hope you do too!

Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 14

From a betting point of view there will be upsets at long prices but often, like the Grand National, it's just a question of picking a horse and hoping for a winner. In general the teams which do better than expected are those for whom the match counts for a lot more than a run of the mill game. A lot of teams are involved in promotion or relegation battles, and cups can be distractions. For others, like Luton, a cup run is the only prospect of winning anything this season and they may choose to channel extra effort in this direction. Above all though the FA Cup is no time to back favourites!

Here's a selection which we've come up with, many of which involve league teams.

Leeds v Northampton. The opening game of the FA Cup 1st Round is on Friday night and sees fallen giants Leeds face Northampton at home. Both teams are doing well in League One, but of the two Leeds will expect promotion and subconsciously may see this match as a bit of a diversion from their main challenge. Considering Northampton's recent form the 13/2 available with Sky Bet looks a bargain.

Sutton Utd v Notts County Sutton have had their share of scalps in this competition and face out of form League Two side Notts County at home. County lost to a non-league side last year at home (Havant and Waterlooville) and this season history could repeat itself again away from Meadow Lane. Sutton can be backed at 3/1.

Harlow v Macclesfield. A similar battle sees Ryman Premier side Harlow pitted against Macclesfield at home. The Silkmen could well slip up in this game and Harlow can be backed at 3/1

Oxford Utd v Dorchester. Both teams are doing well in their respective divisions. It may sound like a David v Goliath match (and certainly would have been a few seasons ago) but these days there is only one division separating these two sides and the away team are bound to be totally fired up for a trip to the former league side. Dorchester can be backed at 5/1.

Morecambe v Grimsby. Grimsby were much improved in the second half on Saturday and Mike Newell may well be tempted to leave Matt Heywood out for the trip to Morecambe, where they drew 1-1 a few weeks ago. Morecambe are decimated by injuries and if Town play like they did without Heywood then they should beat the Shrimpers. Town are available at 11/4 with Sky Bet for a win.

Milton Keynes Dons v Bradford. Both sides are strong in their respective divisions and Bradford's massive fan base means they are a force against any side in either of the bottom two divisions. It probably won't be too long before this fixture is one in the Championship. Bradford can be backed at 11/2 with Sky Bet for a win.

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

  • Fixed Odds - as per last year
  • Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
  • The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

  • 1. Northampton to beat Leeds 13/2 Sky Bet
  • 2. Grimsby to beat Morecambe 11/4 Sky Bet
  • 3. Bradford to beat MK Dons 11/2 Sky Bet

Recommended Spread Bet

    No bet this week.

The Monkey's Bet

  • Grimsby to win 3-1 (33/1, bet365)

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

31/10Dagenham to beat Accrington5/6-£10.00
31/10Luton to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to beat Dagenham4/1-£10.00
27/10Port Vale to beat Aldershot12/5-£10.00
22/10Rotherham to beat Macclesfield8/5+£16.00
22/10Luton to beat Bury10/3+£33.33
14/10Brentford to beat Aldershot19/10-£10.00
14/10Port Vale to beat Chester2/1+£20.00
09/10Grimsby to beat Wycombe11/4-£10.00
09/10Barnet to beat Dagenham9/2-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe6/1-£10.00
06/10Dagenham to beat Peterborough5/1+£50.00
30/09Shrewsbury beat Darlington2/1-£10.00
30/09Brentford to beat Macclesfield8/11+£7.27
24/09Bradford to beat Shrewsbury3/1-£10.00
24/09Rotherham to beat Dag & Red3/1-£10.00
17/09Dagenham to beat Wycombe3/1-£10.00
17/09Macclesfield to beat Port Vale7/2+£35.00
09/09Rotherham to beat Rochdale11/10-£10.00
09/09Port Vale to beat Darlington11/4-£10.00
04/09Dag & Red to beat Brentford12/5-£10.00
04/09Rotherham to beat Chesterfield21/10-£10.00
28/08Chester to beat Barnet17/10+£17.00
28/08Rotherham to beat Brentford21/10-£10.00
19/08Lincoln to win at Wycombe15/4-£10.00
19/08Port Vale to beat Dag & Red21/10-£10.00
15/08Bradford to win at Macclesfield13/10+£13.00
15/08Rotherham to win at Morecambe21/10+£21.00
06/08Rochdale to beat Grimsby17/10-£10.00
06/08Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury4/1-£10.00
Total +£1.60

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

31/10Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance260S-£26.00
22/10Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance1910S+£9.00
14/10Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance1465S-£51.00
09/10Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance1920S-£1.00
24/09Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance2110S+£11.00
17/09Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance3020S-£10.00
09/09Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance21B55+£34.00
04/09Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance23S0-£23.00
28/08Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance38B20+£8.00
19/08Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance38B55+£17.00
15/08Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance31S55-£24.00
06/08Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance20S0+£20.00
Total -£36.00

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

31/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
27/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
22/10Grimsby to win 3-125/1-£10.00
14/10Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
09/10Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/10Grimsby to win 3-180/1-£10.00
30/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
24/09Grimsby to win 3-116/1-£10.00
17/09Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
09/09Grimsby to win 3-128/1-£10.00
04/09Grimsby to win 3-140/1-£10.00
28/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
19/08Grimsby to win 3-122/1-£10.00
15/08Grimsby to win 3-133/1-£10.00
06/08Grimsby to win 3-118/1-£10.00
Total -£150.00

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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