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Cheers Altrincham!
Cheers Altrincham!

Beat the Bookies: Week 25

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 14/01/2011

LAST Week's Beat the Bookies returned to winning ways after Altrincham's impressive win at Rushden, when they managed to come from behind as well. It meant Beat the Bookies won over 70 quid to ensure we stay well in profit for the season - unlike The Monkey!

Home > 2010-2011 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 25

And don't forget our second bet - Leeds to beat Arsenal. How close we came!

Beat the Bookies's methodology is usually to spot low frequency events, but which are more likely than the implied probability of the best price on offer at all the bookies. Keep betting on these underestimated prices, and though you will lose most of the time, overall you will make a profit - and we do - usually!

  • Man City v WOLVERHAMPTON (12.0, Victor Chandler). The story of the season in the Premier League has been the fallibility of the big clubs. But the bookies' prices don't reflect that, largely because Joe Punter up and down the country continues to back the big clubs, forcing the market to be skewed towards them. Wolves have had some cracking results recently, why not another?
  • Chelsea v BLACKBURN (13.0, Victor Chandler). Likewise Chelsea haven't won for donkeys in the league and Blackburn are having a rather good season thank you. There can be only one value bet here.
  • Lincoln v WYCOMBE (2.25, Victor Chandler). This has to be an away banker, with Lincoln lost 4 out of the last 5.
  • Crewe v PORT VALE (3.4, Sky Bet). A top of the table clash and a local derby, the form may seem to favour Crewe, but it doesn't always work like that.
  • Gillingham v NORTHAMPTON (4.2, Tote Sport). Gillingham have put some good results together against some of the weaker sides, but the Cobblers could be a different kettle of fish.
  • Oxford v BRADFORD (3.75, Victor Chandler). The battle of two of the heavyweights in this division, but inconsistent Oxford seem to go missing in the big games.

  • Monkey's bet: Grimsby to win 3-1 (12.0, Bet365)

    Selected Bets

  • Wolves to beat Man City (half stake), 12, Victor Chandler
  • Blackburn to beat Chelsea (half stake), 13, Victor Chandler
  • Wycombe to beat Lincoln, 2.25, Victor Chandler

    Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

    06/01Leeds beat Arsenal12.00£-10.00
    06/01Altrincham beat Rushden and D8.40£74.00
    30/12BSP away wins - 4-folds1.00£-24.75
    22/12Sunderland to beat Man Utd13.00£-10.00
    09/12Tottenham to beat Chelsea3.00£-10.00
    09/12Redditch to beat Grimsby9.00£-10.00
    03/12Birmingham to beat Tottenham3.50£-10.00
    25/11Luton to beat Charlton7.00£-10.00
    25/11Newcastle to beat Chelsea5.50£-10.00
    18/11Birmingham to beat Chelsea5.50£45.00
    18/11Histon to beat Luton11.00£-10.00
    11/11Crewe to beat Gillingham3.00£20.00
    11/11West Ham to beat Blackpool1.95£-10.00
    05/11FC United Manchester to beat Rochdale11.00£100.00
    05/11Dover to beat Gillingham7.00£60.00
    28/10West Brom to beat Blackpool2.62£-10.00
    28/10Kidderminster to beat Southport2.60£-10.00
    28/10Altrincham to beat Hayes4.00£30.00
    22/10Man Utd to beat Stoke1.74£7.40
    22/10Birmingham to beat Blackpool1.95£9.50
    15/10Man City to beat Blackpool1.62£6.15
    15/10Wrexham to beat Hayes2.63£16.25
    08/10Mansfield to beat Rushden3.70£-10.00
    08/10Darlington to beat Hayes1.73£-10.00
    01/10Wrexham to beat Darlington3.70£27.00
    01/10Newcastle to beat Man City8.50£-10.00
    24/09Kidderminster to beat AFC Wimbledon3.40£24.00
    24/09Newcastle to beat Stoke2.00£-10.00
    16/09Wolverhampton to beat Tottenham8.50£-10.00
    16/09Sunderland to beat Arsenal5.50£-10.00
    09/09Histon to beat Crawley5.00£-10.00
    09/09Sunderland to beat Wigan3.00£-10.00
    02/09Kettering to beat AFC Wimbledon3.00£-10.00
    02/09Oxford to beat Morecambe2.10£11.00
    27/08Stoke to beat Tottenham5.20£-10.00
    27/08Morecambe to beat Gillingham2.25£-10.00
    20/08Stoke to beat Tottenham3.30£-10.00
    20/08Altrincham to beat Crawley3.40£-10.00
    13/08Wolves to beat Stoke.2.38£13.75
    13/08Morecambe to beat Rotherham2.88£-10.00
    05/08Reading to beat Scunthorpe by 3 or more goals.5.00£-10.00
    05/08Barnet to beat Chesterfield6.00£-10.00
    Total £149.30

    Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

    11/01Grimsby to win 3-117.00£-10.00
    06/01Grimsby to win 3-123.00£-10.00
    03/01Grimsby to win 3-117.00£-10.00
    30/12Grimsby to win 3-117.00£-10.00
    18/11Grimsby to win 3-118.00£-10.00
    11/11Grimsby to win 3-119.00£-10.00
    08/11Grimsby to win 3-123.00£-10.00
    28/10Grimsby to win 3-115.00£-10.00
    22/10Grimsby to win 3-123.00£-10.00
    08/10Grimsby to win 3-121.00£-10.00
    06/10Grimsby to win 3-117.00£-10.00
    01/10Grimsby to win 3-121.00£-10.00
    28/09Grimsby to win 3-117.00£-10.00
    24/09Grimsby to win 3-117.00£-10.00
    10/09Grimsby to win 3-121.00£-10.00
    02/09Grimsby to win 3-123.00£-10.00
    30/08Grimsby to win 3-126.00£-10.00
    27/08Grimsby to win 3-126.00£-10.00
    22/08Grimsby to win 3-126.00£-10.00
    20/08Grimsby to win 3-112.00£-10.00
    13/08Grimsby to win 3-134.00£-10.00
    15/10Grimsby to win 3-113.00£-10.00
    Total £-220.00

    Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG

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