Beat the Bookies: Week 17

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 14/11/2006

WELL last weekend Town didn't win against Northampton but us Mariners now know something which the bookies do not - that Grimsby are better than their current league position, and are likely to gradually improve over the next few weeks. Do not miss out!

At the start of the season Town's prices in games reflected last season's form - unsurprisingly because the bookies have nothing else to go on. But many Town fans knew differently, for various reasons not least being Graham Rodger having been given the job of manager. Starting from the very first game of the season, I bet on Grimsby to lose. It took a while for the bookies to cotton on to the fact that Grimsby were no longer one of the top sides in the division - something I had feared before a ball is kicked. After six weeks the odds became once again realistic for Town to triumph in games.

Now the opposite is true. Grimsby have been castigated as relegation fodder, and one of the whipping boys of League Two by the bookies. Our secret is that Alan Buckley is very likely to rejuvenate his side over the next few games, but the bookies simply base their odds on recent form - unless a lot of money is placed on a specific result. So now it's time to start backing the Mariners to win games. That doesn't mean to say that we will win every game, simply that the bookies' assessment of the probability of winning is based on out of date data.

Saturday is a perfect chance to test this theory when Town play Wycombe. Bet365 offer 4/1 for a Grimsby win, admittedly against one of the best sides in the division. Only two weeks ago only a madman would have backed Town to win. Last week we were not outclassed by Northampton a division higher than us, and had the chances to win the game, so why couldn't we come away from Adams Park with all three points? Maybe the actual odds are 5/2 or 3/1?

At our neighbours Scunthorpe the opposite process is taking place. Scunny haven't won for three games, they have lost their manager, and it's probably about time they dropped a rung or two from their lofty perch - I seem to recall them suffering a similar dip in form about this time last year. They are a club in decline, but the bookies' inertia still sees odds offered based on form of dubious relevance. The visitors at Glanford Park this week are no other than Northampton, who Bet365 offer a very generous 11/4 to topple the Iron. The Cobblers have an excellent away record and I really fancy them to win the game, and would consider backing them at much shorter odds than those available.

Finally if you want to overlook our particular corner of Lincolnshire and dip into the Premiership then look no further than a Dowie-less Charlton to win at Reading, for which you can get odds of 11/4.

Recommended Bets

• 1. Grimsby to beat Wycombe (4/1).
• 2. Northampton to beat Scunthorpe (11/4).

Previous Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each)

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