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Beat the Bookies: Week 3

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 10/08/2005

THERE'S an old adage in gambling to only bet on what your know. For that reason I'm avoiding betting on anything related to the Premiership as I long along stopped taking more than a passive interest in it.

Home > 2005-2006 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 3

That said, if I were to bet I would sell the number of league points Chelsea will pick up over the course of the season. IG Index are currently offering 86.5. The league champions last season managed an exceptional 95, so there isn't a great deal of downside to selling the Blues.

I also have a sneaking feeling that Wigan will overturn Chelsea in the first game of the season at the JJB, for which are offering a staggering 8-1. But experience tells me betting against Chelsea is probably my heart ruling my head, so I'll reluctantly give it a miss.

However, this week I turn my attention to the Mariners' second away game of the week at Chester. At this stage of the season I always believe the regular supporter has an advantage over the bookies in that we know who takes free kicks, penalties and so on, whereas the national bookies do not (I presume). All they have to go on is the matches so far, which right now are not many.

Sadly are not even offering odds on Town's regular set piece taker Tom Newey scoring, which shows the state of their knowledge! (That will be a bet for a future week when the bookies got round to realising he plays for Grimsby).

For me the player who stands out in the betting is Rob Jones at 40/1 to score the first goal, and 12/1 to score at all. Jones goes up for virtually every free kick and corner and is Town's habitual target on most occasions because of his height and aerial ability. What's more all three Grimsby goals to date have come from set pieces, a notable change from years gone by when a Town corner was usually a good opportunity to nip to the toilet!

12/1 means that if Chester were to play Grimsby on 13 occasions the bookies would expect him to score on average in one of those games. I believe the probability is greater than that - I still expect to lose in a "typical week", but over the course of a season I'm hoping my "margins" will see my winnings in the weeks I am right offset the deficit in the weeks that I lose. We shall see!

Chester v Grimsby scorers

PlayerFirst GoalTo Score
Gregg Blundell9/25/4
Michael Branch11/26/4
Ryan Lowe11/26/4
Cortez Belle6/113/8
Michael Reddy6/113/8
Martin Gritton13/27/4
Gavin Lynch7/115/8
Marcus Richardson7/115/8
Rob Booth8/19/4
Andy Parkinson17/29/4
Gary Cohen17/29/4
Craig Dove9/15/2
Stuart Drummond12/17/2
Paul Ashton14/14/1
Nick Hegarty18/19/2
Gary Croft22/16/1
Tony Crane22/16/1
Ben Davies22/16/1
Michael Walsh22/16/1
Jean Paul Kamudimba28/18/1
Terry Barwick28/18/1
Phil Bolland33/19/1
Richard Hope33/19/1
Sean Hessey33/19/1
Robert Jones40/112/1
Glen Downey50/114/1
John McDermott50/114/1
Simon Ramsden50/114/1
Andrew Harris50/114/1
Carl Regan50/114/1
Stephen Vaughan50/114/1
Justin Whittle66/116/1
No GoalScorer 152

Rob Jones to Score against Chester

Previous Bets (£10 per week)

27/07Rushden to get relegated5/2In progress
03/08Sell Lincoln in League Two 60 Index13In progress

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