Beat the Bookies: Week 18

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 04/12/2008

LAST week's foray into the FA Cup proved singularly unsuccessful, so this week we return to League Two when coincidentally there are some very important games at the bottom of the table.

Port Vale v Grimsby. With both clubs not doing very well at the moment this is a very hard game to call. Town as we know have improved of late, but there results haven't necessarily reflected that. If you are brave you may be tempted by 11/4 for a Town win, but 23/10 for a draw might be slightly more realistic.

Bournemouth v Chester. Sadly its hard to see anything but a home win in this game. Bournemouth simply must win it, they are at home, they are a better team than Chester anyway. Three points to the Cherries looks a formality. They can be baked at Evens with Paddy Power.

Luton v Barnet. This falls into the same category as the Bournemouth and a home win is likely. If anything though Barnet have got a slightly better chance than Chester purely because Luton's recent form is so terrible, but still expect a home win which is available at 10/11

Aldershot v Wycombe. Both clubs suffered FA Cup defeats at the weekend, despite the excellent League Two form the pair are experiencing. Wycombe however have already bounced back with a comfortable win over Macclesfield in midweek. As Wycombe are yet to lose a game this season and Aldershot have won there last four without conceding a goal something has to give. This looks like being a low scoring game, but at 11/8 the Chairboys are probably the better value.

Gillingham v Chesterfield. Both clubs had been doing well but have slipped up in their last couple of games and dropped points. In truth there looks little to separate the two sides which makes the 5/2 price for an away win a little baffling.

Bradford v Dagenham. Dagenham are having a great season but they do not travel well. It's true that Bradford are not as strong on their own ground as they should be, but even so this looks like another home banker for a team who have picked up 4 wins out of 6. You can back City at 10/11

This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:

• Fixed Odds - as per last year
• Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
• The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).

Recommended Fixed Odds Bets

• 1. Bournemouth to beat Chester. (Evens, Paddy Power)
• 2. Bradford to beat Dagenham. (10/11 Bet365),

Recommended Spread Bet

• Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance (21) at www.igsport.com

The Monkey's Bet

• Grimsby to win 3-1, 33/1 Bet365

Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)

Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)

Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.

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