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| Beaten Again! |
Beat the Bookies: Week 38
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 01/05/2009
LAST week's matches both ended up with defeats, but Beat the Bookies is still guaranteed to make a profit for the fourth year running as the current kitty is enough to cover this week's two bets.
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Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 38 |
It's the last week of the season when there are always a few odd results. Youth players start in games and one or two may even bet on themselves to lose, so don't put a lot of money on and don't back favourites!
Grimsby v Macclesfield. How often do you see a side reach safety and then slump in form? Macclesfield are not in great form but they won last week and at 3/1 are probably better value than Town who are odds on to win. Selection: Macclesfield
Bury v Accrington Stanley. This was the fixture over which betting allegations still remain from last season, and ironically once again it is the last game. Bury must win to stand a chance of automatic promotion. Stanley have been safe for ages. Although the home side are clear favourites 8/1 with Paddy Power seems a crazy price for any team in this division and may be caused in large part by the betting allegations. Whatever the cause it seems an overreaction. Selection: Accrington
Wycombe v Notts Co. This is a similar situation to the previous game, where Wycombe need to win to ensure promotion. Notts Co have probably been unfairly written off at 7/1. Selection: Notts Co
Morecambe v Bournemouth The season is over for both these clubs but it is Bournemouth who have more to celebrate and will be on a high. At 11/5 the away side are the better value. Selection: Bournemouth
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
- 1. Macclesfield to beat Grimsby . (3/1, Bet365)
- 2. Accrington Stanley to beat Bury. (8/1, Paddy Power)
Recommended Spread Bet
- Wycombe v Notts County, buy Notts County mini performance (13, extrabet.com)
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 14/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04 | Grimsby to beat Bournemouth | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/04 | Luton to beat Rochdale | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/04 | Darlington to beat Rochdale | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 16/04 | Accrington to beat Brentford | 8/1 | -£5.00 |
| 16/04 | Accrington (+1) to beat Brentford | 2.05 | -£5.00 |
| 09/04 | Darlington to beat Chesterfield | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 09/04 | Luton to beat Lincoln | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Grimsby to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 13/8 | +£16.25 |
| 31/03 | Bradford to beat Chester | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 16/5 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Chester to beat Bury | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Luton to beat Macclesfield | 16/5 | +£8.00 |
| 12/03 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 16/5 | +£32.00 |
| 12/03 | Luton to beat Aldershot | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 13/5 | +£26.00 |
| 05/03 | Barnet to beat Chester | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 26/02 | Bournemouth to beat Gillingham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Barnet to beat Chesterfield | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Barnet to beat Bradford | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 20/02 | Morecambe to beat Aldershot | 11/4 | +£27.50 |
| 13/02 | Barnet to beat Notts County | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Exeter to beat Aldershot | 10/11 | +£9.09 |
| 05/02 | Dagenham to beat Bury | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to beat Bradford | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Macclesfield to beat Rotherham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) | 4/5 | £0.00 |
| 21/01 | Tottenham to beat Man Utd | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Lincoln to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Luton to beat Darlington | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/01 | Exeter to beat Notts County | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Accrington to beat Rochdale | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Bournemouth to beat Darlington | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Luton to beat Chesterfield | 14/5 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Port Vale to beat Rotherham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Bournemouth to beat Brentford | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Grimsby to beat Aldershot | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Lincoln to beat Notts County | 7/4 | +£17.50 |
| 11/12 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 11/12 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bournemouth to beat Chester | Evens | +£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 10/11 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Aldershot beat Millwall | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Alferton beat Scunthorpe | 17/2 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Notts Co to beat Dagenham | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Gillingham to beat Bury | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 9/2 | +£45.00 |
| 11/11 | Gillingham to beat Rotherham | 5/4 | +£12.50 |
| 06/11 | Northampton to beat Leeds | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to beat Morecambe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Bradford to beat MK Dons | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 31/10 | Dagenham to beat Accrington | 5/6 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Luton to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Port Vale to beat Aldershot | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Rotherham to beat Macclesfield | 8/5 | +£16.00 |
| 22/10 | Luton to beat Bury | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 14/10 | Brentford to beat Aldershot | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Port Vale to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to beat Wycombe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Barnet to beat Dagenham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Dagenham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | +£50.00 |
| 30/09 | Shrewsbury beat Darlington | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Brentford to beat Macclesfield | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 24/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Rotherham to beat Dagenham | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Dagenham to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
| 28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dagenham | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
| 15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | +£21.73 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04 | Rochdale v Port Vale: Sell Rochdale Mini Performance | 34 | S | 35 | -£1.00 |
| 03/04 | Exeter v Dagenham: Sell Dagenham Mini Performance | 20 | 10 | S | +£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Rochdale v Exeter - sell Rochdale Mini Performance | 30 | 30 | S | +£0.00 |
| 20/03 | Shrewsbury v Morecambe - sell Shrewsbury Mini Performance | 31 | 10 | S | +£21.00 |
| 26/02 | Rochdale v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 16 | 0 | S | -£16.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance | 27 | 45 | B | +£18.00 |
| 30/01 | Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance | 32 | 45 | S | -£13.00 |
| 21/01 | Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | +£34.00 |
| 15/01 | Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 14 | 35 | S | +£21.00 |
| 04/12 | Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance | 21 | 10 | B | -£6.00 |
| 04/12 | Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | -£34.00 |
| 19/11 | Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance | 25 | 45 | S | +£20.00 |
| 31/10 | Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance | 26 | 0 | S | -£26.00 |
| 22/10 | Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance | 19 | 10 | S | +£9.00 |
| 14/10 | Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance | 14 | 65 | S | -£51.00 |
| 09/10 | Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 19 | 20 | S | -£1.00 |
| 24/09 | Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 21 | 10 | S | +£11.00 |
| 17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
| 04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
| 28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
| 19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
| 15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
| 06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
| Total | +£18.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 16/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 12/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 03/04 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 12/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£380.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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