Beat the Bookies: Week 13

By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 24/10/2005

WOKING came up trumps last week beating Nottingham Forest in a thrilling 3-2 LDV Game at Kingfield. Unfortunately their fellow conference club Morecambe beat the Mariners but that is another story...

The early rounds of the cups often see good value for money as the so-called stronger teams field weaker sides (as happened with Derby v Town in Round 1), but the bookies' prices tend to still reflect the reputations of the respective teams.

However, Newcastle's league position means the Carling Cup offers probably their best chance of silverware and entry into Europe next season. That and the Mariners' high-profile defeat of a full strength Tottenham side in the previous round, means there is no chance of Graham Souness playing a significantly weakened side.

The Magpies' squad, though, has been decimated by injuries this season, and Souness is far from able to play his first choice XI, including a big question mark over star striker Michael Owen. Likewise Russell Slade who could have 2 or 3 first choice players missing, or perhaps playing but not 100% fit.

All that said of course in principle Grimsby should lose to Newcastle; they have no chance on paper, we all known that. But evening cup matches especially at Blundell Park over the years have seen many a big name club go packing. In one of the first matches I ever witnessed live two Mike Brolly goals saw Everton go crashing out of this competition (unfortunately I was too young then to have placed a bet).

Now for the prices. bet365.com make Town 6/1 to win over 90 minutes, with the draw rated 11/4, and a Newcastle victory ranked 1/2.

The first (Grimsby) goalscorer prices see Rob Jones at 20/1 with bet365.com, and Michael Reddy at 9/2. Both are tempting, our two most dangerous players against a Premiership defence.

This week's recommendation is quite simple. If Town raise their game, and Newcastle have an off day then Grimsby can once again triumph in this competition. In 90 minutes of course!

Previous Bets (£10 per week)

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