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Beat the Bookies: Week 34
By: Rob Sedgwick
Date: 03/04/2009
BOTH last week's fixed odds tips lost, and the spread bet scored exactly the value of the stake. meaning no return. So all in all it was a losing weekend - almost irrelevant as Grimsby won of course!
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Home > 2008-2009 Season > Beat the Bookies > Week 34 |
Shrewsbury v Grimsby. Many people would write Town off before a ball is kicked on the basis of the league positions. However Shrewsbury have drawn their last five games, and they looked short on confidence in last weekend's televised game. Town's confidence by contrast will be sky high after two good wins and a sudden doubling of the crowd! A lot will depend on how the Mariners can contain the home side's dangerous forwards. Town though are likely to play a very conservative game as they did at Luton and Chester, and it could be a low scoring match. However Grimsby always have a chance to score on the counter attack and in both the games mentioned they took the lead. Grimsby can be backed at 4/1. Selection: Grimsby
Bournemouth v Rochdale.The Cherries have lost their last two games and will be desperate for a win. Dale are very inconsistent but will probably take a draw in a tricky fixture for them. The Bournemouth fans are bound to come out in force though and a home win looks likely. At 13/8 for either side to win the Cherries have got to be the better value. Selection: Bournemouth
Darlington v Morecambe. The two teams on the fringes of the play offs both need a win to stand any chance. However all the off field problems for Darlo are bound to have had an effect on their players and the away win looks the more likely. Morecambe can be backed at 12/5. Selection: Morecambe
Exeter v Dagenham. Neither side is exactly in sparkling form but the Devon club are traditionally strong at home and Daggers look to have faded at the wrong time to make the play-offs. At 21/20 Exeter look a decent odds against price. Selection: Exeter
Gillingham v Barnet. Barnet showed in midweek they are capable of good away results, despite their recent dip after a good spell. Gills are strong at home and are obviously favourites but at 4/1 with Sky Bet Barnet are worth a punt. Selection: Barnet
This season we will be trying out three different betting strategies:
- Fixed Odds - as per last year
- Spread Betting on the Mini Performance Index with IG Index (25 points for a win, 10 for a draw, 10 for a goal)
- The Monkey (betting on Town to win each game 3-1, i.e. the complete absence of any betting strategy).
Recommended Fixed Odds Bets
Recommended Spread Bet
- Exeter v Dagenham: Sell Dagenham Mini Performance, 20, extrabet.com
The Monkey's Bet
- Grimsby to win 3-1, 16/1 Bet365
Previous Fixed Odds Bets (1 or 2 bets, around £10 per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03 | Bradford to beat Chester | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 31/03 | Bournemouth to beat Bury | 16/5 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Chester to beat Bury | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Luton to beat Macclesfield | 16/5 | +£8.00 |
| 12/03 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 16/5 | +£32.00 |
| 12/03 | Luton to beat Aldershot | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Morecambe to beat Dagenham | 13/5 | +£26.00 |
| 05/03 | Barnet to beat Chester | 4/5 | +£8.00 |
| 26/02 | Bournemouth to beat Gillingham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Barnet to beat Chesterfield | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Barnet to beat Bradford | 5/2 | +£25.00 |
| 20/02 | Morecambe to beat Aldershot | 11/4 | +£27.50 |
| 13/02 | Barnet to beat Notts County | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Exeter to beat Aldershot | 10/11 | +£9.09 |
| 05/02 | Dagenham to beat Bury | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to beat Bradford | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Macclesfield to beat Rotherham | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Ipswich (+2) to beat Chelsea (0) | 4/5 | £0.00 |
| 21/01 | Tottenham to beat Man Utd | 8/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Lincoln to beat Rochdale | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Luton to beat Darlington | 7/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/01 | Exeter to beat Notts County | 6/4 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Accrington to beat Rochdale | 5/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Bournemouth to beat Darlington | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Luton to beat Chesterfield | 14/5 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Port Vale to beat Rotherham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Bournemouth to beat Brentford | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Shrewsbury to beat Rochdale | 9/4 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Grimsby to beat Aldershot | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 16/12 | Lincoln to beat Notts County | 7/4 | +£17.50 |
| 11/12 | Port Vale to beat Bury | 10/3 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Macclesfield to beat Chesterfield | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 11/12 | Bournemouth to beat Rochdale | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bournemouth to beat Chester | Evens | +£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Bradford to beat Dagenham | 10/11 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Aldershot beat Millwall | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 28/11 | Alferton beat Scunthorpe | 17/2 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Notts Co to beat Dagenham | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Gillingham to beat Bury | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to beat Bury | 9/2 | +£45.00 |
| 11/11 | Gillingham to beat Rotherham | 5/4 | +£12.50 |
| 06/11 | Northampton to beat Leeds | 13/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to beat Morecambe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Bradford to beat MK Dons | 11/2 | +£55.00 |
| 31/10 | Dagenham to beat Accrington | 5/6 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Luton to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to beat Dagenham | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Port Vale to beat Aldershot | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Rotherham to beat Macclesfield | 8/5 | +£16.00 |
| 22/10 | Luton to beat Bury | 10/3 | +£33.33 |
| 14/10 | Brentford to beat Aldershot | 19/10 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Port Vale to beat Chester | 2/1 | +£20.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to beat Wycombe | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Barnet to beat Dagenham | 9/2 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to beat Scunthorpe | 6/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Dagenham to beat Peterborough | 5/1 | +£50.00 |
| 30/09 | Shrewsbury beat Darlington | 2/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Brentford to beat Macclesfield | 8/11 | +£7.27 |
| 24/09 | Bradford to beat Shrewsbury | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Rotherham to beat Dagenham | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Dagenham to beat Wycombe | 3/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Macclesfield to beat Port Vale | 7/2 | +£35.00 |
| 09/09 | Rotherham to beat Rochdale | 11/10 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Port Vale to beat Darlington | 11/4 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Dag & Red to beat Brentford | 12/5 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Rotherham to beat Chesterfield | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Chester to beat Barnet | 17/10 | +£17.00 |
| 28/08 | Rotherham to beat Brentford | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Lincoln to win at Wycombe | 15/4 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Port Vale to beat Dag & Red | 21/10 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Bradford to win at Macclesfield | 13/10 | +£13.00 |
| 15/08 | Rotherham to win at Morecambe | 21/10 | +£21.00 |
| 06/08 | Rochdale to beat Grimsby | 17/10 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Macclesfield to beat Shrewsbury | 4/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | +£10.52 | ||
Previous Spread Bets (Around 1 bet per week each of Rob's own money)
| Date | Bet | Price | Buy/Sell | Actual | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03 | Rochdale v Exeter - sell Rochdale Mini Performance | 30 | 30 | S | +£0.00 |
| 20/03 | Shrewsbury v Morecambe - sell Shrewsbury Mini Performance | 31 | 10 | S | +£21.00 |
| 26/02 | Rochdale v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 16 | 0 | S | -£16.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby v Bury - buy Bury Mini Performance | 27 | 45 | B | +£18.00 |
| 30/01 | Wycombe v Accrington - sell Wycombe Mini Performance | 32 | 45 | S | -£13.00 |
| 21/01 | Bournemouth v Wycombe - buy Bournemouth Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | +£34.00 |
| 15/01 | Wycombe v Grimsby - buy Grimsby Mini Performance | 14 | 35 | S | +£21.00 |
| 04/12 | Luton v Wycombe - buy Luton Mini Performance | 21 | 10 | B | -£6.00 |
| 04/12 | Aldershot v Wycombe - sell Aldershot Mini Performance | 21 | 55 | S | -£34.00 |
| 19/11 | Rotherham v Bradford - buy Bradford Mini Performance | 25 | 45 | S | +£20.00 |
| 31/10 | Notts County v Bury - Buy Notts County Mini Performance | 26 | 0 | S | -£26.00 |
| 22/10 | Port Vale v Morecambe - Sell Morecambe mini-performance | 19 | 10 | S | +£9.00 |
| 14/10 | Rotherham v Barnet - Sell Barnet mini-performance | 14 | 65 | S | -£51.00 |
| 09/10 | Accrington v Bradford - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 19 | 20 | S | -£1.00 |
| 24/09 | Accrington v Rochdale - Sell Accrington mini-performance | 21 | 10 | S | +£11.00 |
| 17/09 | Chester v Shrewsbury - Buy Shrewsbury mini-performance | 30 | 20 | S | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby v Chester - Buy Chester mini-performance | 21 | B | 55 | +£34.00 |
| 04/09 | Chesterfield v Rotherham: Buy Rotherham mini performance | 23 | S | 0 | -£23.00 |
| 28/08 | Rochdale v Bury: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 38 | B | 20 | +£8.00 |
| 19/08 | Rotherham v Chester: Buy Rotherham mini-performance | 38 | B | 55 | +£17.00 |
| 15/08 | Rochdale v Barnet: Sell Rochdale mini-performance | 31 | S | 55 | -£24.00 |
| 06/08 | Bury v Brentford: Sell Brentford mini performance | 20 | S | 0 | +£20.00 |
| Total | +£9.00 | ||||
Previous Monkey Bets (£10 per week of the Monkey's pretend money)
| Date | Bet | Odds | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 12/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/03 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 26/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 20/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 13/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 05/02 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 20/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 21/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/01 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 66/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 23/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/12 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 11/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 50/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/11 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 31/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 27/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 22/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 25/1 | -£10.00 |
| 14/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/10 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 80/1 | -£10.00 |
| 30/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 24/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 16/1 | -£10.00 |
| 17/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 09/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 28/1 | -£10.00 |
| 04/09 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 40/1 | -£10.00 |
| 28/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 19/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 22/1 | -£10.00 |
| 15/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 33/1 | -£10.00 |
| 06/08 | Grimsby to win 3-1 | 18/1 | -£10.00 |
| Total | -£340.00 | ||
Every month I try and beat the bookies but now you can try and beat me - with pretend money. Just sign up and join the Grimsby Town team at OLBG.
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